Influenza pandemic planning

Abstract

Periodically, novel influenza viruses emerge and spread rapidly through susceptible populations, resulting in worldwide epidemics or pandemics. Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century. The first and most devastating of these, the "Spanish Flu" (A/H1N1) pandemic of 1918-1919, is estimated to have resulted in 20-50 million or more deaths worldwide, with unusually high mortality among young adults [C.W. Potter, Chronicle of influenza pandemics, in: K.G. Nicholson, R.G. Webster, A.J. Hay (Eds.), Textbook of Influenza, Blackwell Science, Oxford, 1998, p. 3]. Mortality associated with the 1957 "Asian Flu" (A/H2N2) and the 1968 "Hong Kong Flu" (A/H3N2) pandemics was less severe, with the highest excess mortality in the elderly and persons with chronic diseases [J. Infect. Dis. 178 (1998) 53]. However, considerable morbidity, social disruption and economic loss occurred during both of these pandemics [J. Infect. Dis. 176 (Suppl. 1) (1997) S4]. It is reasonable to assume that future influenza pandemics will occur, given historical evidence and current understanding of the biology, ecology, and epidemiology of influenza. Influenza viruses are impossible to eradicate, as there is a large reservoir of all subtypes of influenza A viruses in wild aquatic birds. In agricultural-based communities with high human population density such as are found in China, conditions exist for the emergence and spread of pandemic viruses. It is also impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. Moreover, the severity of illness is also unpredictable, so contingency plans must be put in place now during the inter-pandemic period. These plans must be flexible enough to respond to different levels of disease.