Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection

Abstract

The persistence of Influenza A in the human population relies on continual changes in the viral surface antigens allowing the virus to reinfect the same hosts every few years. The epidemiology of such a drifting virus is modeled by a discrete season-to-season map. During the epidemic season only one strain is present and its transmission dynamics follows a standard epidemic model. After the season, cross-immunity to next year's virus is determined from the proportion of hosts that were infected during the season. A partial analysis of this map shows the existence of oscillations where epidemics occur at regular or irregular intervals.