Traffic-law enforcement and risk of death from motor-vehicle crashes: case-crossover study

Abstract

Background: Driving offences and traffic deaths are common in countries with high rates of motor-vehicle use. We tested whether traffic convictions, because of their direct effect on the recipient, might be associated with a reduced risk of fatal motor-vehicle crashes.

Methods: We identified licensed drivers in Ontario, Canada, who had been involved in fatal crashes in the past 11 years. We used the case-crossover design to analyse the protective effect of recent convictions on individual drivers.

Findings: 8975 licensed drivers had fatal crashes during the study period. 21501 driving convictions were recorded for all drivers from the date of obtaining a full licence to the date of fatal crash, equivalent to about one conviction per driver every 5 years. The risk of a fatal crash in the month after a conviction was about 35% lower than in a comparable month with no conviction for the same driver (95% CI 20-45, p=0.0002). The benefit lessened substantially by 2 months and was not significant by 3-4 months. The benefit was not altered by age, previous convictions, and other personal characteristics; was greater for speeding violations with penalty points than speeding violations without points; was no different for crashes of differing severity; and was not seen in drivers whose licences were suspended.

Interpretation: Traffic-law enforcement effectively reduces the frequency of fatal motor-vehicle crashes in countries with high rates of motor-vehicle use. Inconsistent enforcement, therefore, may contribute to thousands of deaths each year worldwide.