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. 2003 Jul 19;327(7407):139-42.
doi: 10.1136/bmj.327.7407.139.

A levels and intelligence as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors: 20 year prospective study

I C McManus  1 , Eleni Smithers, Philippa Partridge, A Keeling, Peter R Fleming
Affiliations

A levels and intelligence as predictors of medical careers in UK doctors: 20 year prospective study

I C McManus et al. BMJ. .

Abstract

Objective: To assess whether A level grades (achievement) and intelligence (ability) predict doctors' careers.

Design: Prospective cohort study with follow up after 20 years by postal questionnaire.

Setting: A UK medical school in London.

Participants: 511 doctors who had entered Westminster Medical School as clinical students between 1975 and 1982 were followed up in January 2002.

Main outcome measures: Time taken to reach different career grades in hospital or general practice, postgraduate qualifications obtained (membership/fellowships, diplomas, higher academic degrees), number of research publications, and measures of stress and burnout related to A level grades and intelligence (result of AH5 intelligence test) at entry to clinical school. General health questionnaire, Maslach burnout inventory, and questionnaire on satisfaction with career at follow up.

Results: 47 (9%) doctors were no longer on the Medical Register. They had lower A level grades than those who were still on the register (P < 0.001). A levels also predicted performance in undergraduate training, performance in postregistration house officer posts, and time to achieve membership qualifications (Cox regression, P < 0.001; b=0.376, SE=0.098, exp(b)=1.457). Intelligence did not independently predict dropping off the register, career outcome, or other measures. A levels did not predict diploma or higher academic qualifications, research publications, or stress or burnout. Diplomas, higher academic degrees, and research publications did, however, significantly correlate with personality measures.

Conclusions: Results of achievement tests, in this case A level grades, which are particularly used for selection of students in the United Kingdom, have long term predictive validity for undergraduate and postgraduate careers. In contrast, a test of ability or aptitude (AH5) was of little predictive validity for subsequent medical careers.

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Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
Careers of doctors in hospital medicine and general practice (career grade above and acquisition of memberships, diplomas, and academic degrees below)
Fig 2
Fig 2
Kaplan-Meier plots for percentage of doctors obtaining membership in relation to A level grade, after taking hospital/general practice differences into account
Fig 3
Fig 3
Path model of causal associations between different educational achievements of doctors. Coefficients represent standardised path coefficients (β coefficients) with their associated significance levels
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

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