A new scoring system to stratify risk in unstable angina

Abstract

Background: We performed this study to develop a new scoring system to stratify different levels of risk in patients admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of unstable angina (UA), which is a complex syndrome that encompasses different outcomes. Many prognostic variables have been described but few efforts have been made to group them in order to enhance their individual predictive power.

Methods: In a first phase, 473 patients were prospectively analyzed to determine which factors were significantly associated with the in-hospital occurrence of refractory ischemia, acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or death. A risk score ranging from 0 to 10 points was developed using a multivariate analysis. In a second phase, such score was validated in a new sample of 242 patients and it was finally applied to the entire population (n = 715).

Results: ST-segment deviation on the electrocardiogram, age > or = 70 years, previous bypass surgery and troponin T > or = 0.1 ng/mL were found as independent prognostic variables. A clear distinction was shown among categories of low, intermediate and high risk, defined according to the risk score. The incidence of the triple end-point was 6 %, 19.2 % and 44.7 % respectively, and the figures for AMI or death were 2 %, 11.4 % and 27.6 % respectively (p < 0.001).

Conclusions: This new scoring system is simple and easy to achieve. It allows a very good stratification of risk in patients having a clinical diagnosis of UA. They may be divided in three categories, which could be of help in the decision-making process.

Figure 1

Distribution of risk groups in the validation phase [green bars] and in the entire population [red bars]. LR: low-risk; IR: intermediate-risk; HR: high-risk.

Figure 2

Incidence of end-points according to risk groups in the entire population. Triple end-point [green bars] and double end-point [red bars]. LR: low-risk; IR: intermediate-risk; HR: high-risk.