Sensitivity analysis of a new model of carcinogenesis

Abstract

A new simulation model of carcinogenesis is described which, in addition to the features of a standard clonal two-stage model (loss of both copies of a tumor suppressor gene by point mutations, cell division and cell death), includes a quantitative description of mitotic recombination, DNA repair, and cell to cell interactions in all stages. The model is implemented as a discrete event process. The results of a sensitivity analysis of the model are presented. The most sensitive parameters were found to be: the number of normal cells at risk, and the division rate, death rate and DNA repair efficiency for the intermediate stage cells. Accurate information about these parameters is important for a quantitative understanding of carcinogenesis. The sensitivity of the model to the number of normal cells indicates the importance of understanding the nature of the cells at risk, for example, stem cells vs. differentiated cells. The model can be used to assess the importance of chromosomal damage such as mitotic recombination and epigenetic mechanisms such as hyperplasia and cytotoxicity in the onset of malignant tumors.