Temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai: a time-series study

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the association between temperature and daily mortality in Shanghai from June 1, 2000 to December 31, 2001.

Methods: Time-series approach was used to estimate the effect of temperature on daily total and cause-specific mortality. We fitted generalized additive Poisson regression using non-parametric smooth functions to control for long-term time trend, season and other variables. We also controlled for day of the week.

Results: A gently sloping V-like relationship between total mortality and temperature was found, with an optimum temperature (e.g. temperature with lowest mortality risk) value of 26.7 degrees C in Shanghai. For temperatures above the optimum value, total mortality increased by 0.73% for each degree Celsius increase; while for temperature below the optimum value, total mortality decreased by 1.21% for each degree Celsius increase.

Conclusions: Our findings indicate that temperature has an effect on daily mortality in Shanghai, and the time-series approach is a useful tool for studying the temperature-mortality association.