Estimating the prevalence of long-term disability for an aging society

Abstract

Using information from two national data sets, this report provides projections of disability rates for the U.S. population age 65 and above. The research develops a series of projections based upon alternative sets of assumptions about mortality and disability. Using 1986 baseline disability data, estimates by single year of age are projected through the year 2040. The social policy implications of these projections are discussed in the final section.