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. 2003 Sep;9(9):1143-50.
doi: 10.3201/eid0909.020608.

Skunk and raccoon rabies in the eastern United States: temporal and spatial analysis

Marta A Guerra  1 , Aaron T Curns, Charles E Rupprecht, Cathleen A Hanlon, John W Krebs, James E Childs
Affiliations

Skunk and raccoon rabies in the eastern United States: temporal and spatial analysis

Marta A Guerra et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Sep.

Abstract

Since 1981, an epizootic of raccoon rabies has spread throughout the eastern United States. A concomitant increase in reported rabies cases in skunks has raised concerns that an independent maintenance cycle of rabies virus in skunks could become established, affecting current strategies of wildlife rabies control programs. Rabies surveillance data from 1981 through 2000 obtained from the health departments of 11 eastern states were used to analyze temporal and spatial characteristics of rabies epizootics in each species. Spatial analysis indicated that epizootics in raccoons and skunks moved in a similar direction from 1990 to 2000. Temporal regression analysis showed that the number of rabid raccoons predicted the number of rabid skunks through time, with a 1-month lag. In areas where the raccoon rabies virus variant is enzootic, spatio-temporal analysis does not provide evidence that this rabies virus variant is currently cycling independently among skunks.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Counties with at least one rabies epizootic among raccoons, 1981(a) through 2000 (b); and among skunks, 1990 (c) through 2000 (d), in the mid-Atlantic states, 1981–2000.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Magnitude and direction (vectors) of successive mean centers of counties from 11 mid-Atlantic states reporting rabies from 1990 to 2000 for raccoons and skunks.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Fitted line resulting from Poisson regression analysis of 32 counties with at least 12 rabid skunks in first 12 months. logY= 0.2835 + 0.0262(RACCOONt-1) – 0.0021(time) +0.0020(RACCOONt-1*time) + Bi(countyi) + Bj(monthj)
Figure 4
Figure 4
Proportion of rabies cases by month for each species, 1990–2000.
Figure 5
Figure 5
The mean centers and standard deviational ellipses (SDE) of counties reporting rabies in skunks and raccoons in the mid-Atlantic States. a) 1990, b) 2000.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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