Nomogram for predicting the likelihood of delayed graft function in adult cadaveric renal transplant recipients

Abstract

Delayed graft function (DGF) is the need for dialysis in the first week after transplantation. Studied were risk factors for DGF in adult (age >/=16 yr) cadaveric renal transplant recipients by means of a multivariable modeling procedure. Only donor and recipient factors known before transplantation were chosen so that the probabilities of DGF could be calculated before transplantation and appropriate preventative measures taken. Data on 19,706 recipients of cadaveric allografts were obtained from the United States Renal Data System registry (1995 to 1998). Graft losses within the first 24 h after surgery were excluded from the analysis (n = 89). Patients whose DGF information was missing or unknown (n = 2820) and patients missing one or more candidate predictors (n = 2951) were also excluded. By means of a multivariable logistic regression analysis, factors contributing to DGF in the remaining 13,846 patients were identified. After validating the logistic regression model, a nomogram was developed as a tool for identifying patients at risk for DGF. The incidence of DGF was 23.7%. Sixteen independent donor or recipient risk factors were found to predict DGF. A nomogram quantifying the relative contribution of each risk factor was created. This index can be used to calculate the risk of DGF for an individual by adding the points associated with each risk factor. The nomogram provides a useful tool for developing a pretransplantation index of the likelihood of DGF occurrence. With this index in hand, better informed treatment and allocation decisions can be made.