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. 2003 Dec;9(12):1608-10.
doi: 10.3201/eid0912.030382.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Asia

Guofa Zhou  1 , Guiyun Yan
Affiliations

Severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in Asia

Guofa Zhou et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Dec.

Erratum in

  • Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Feb;11(2):355

Abstract

We analyzed the dynamics of cumulative severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Beijing using the Richards model. The predicted total SARS incidence was close to the actual number of cases; the predicted cessation date was close to the lower limit of the 95% confidence interval.

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Figures

Figure
Figure
Epidemiologic depiction of epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Beijing, Hong Kong, and Singapore. The number of daily confirmed SARS cases and 5-day moving average are represented by the left graphs. The observed and predicted cumulative cases since April 21, 2003 (Beijing), and March 17, 2003 (Hong Kong and Singapore), are shown in the right graphs. The modeling used case incidence data up to May 14, 2003. The arrow indicates the date that the World Health Organization removed the locality from the list of areas with local transmission.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

  • SARS epidemiology modeling.
    Hsieh YH, Lee JY, Chang HL. Hsieh YH, et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jun;10(6):1165-7; author reply 1167-8. doi: 10.3201/eid1006.031023. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004. PMID: 15224675 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

References

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    1. Richards FJ. A flexible growth function for empirical use. J Exp Bot. 1959;10:290–300.10.1093/jxb/10.2.290 - DOI
    1. Ministry of Health. People’s Republic of China. http://www.moh.gov.cn/zhgl/yqfb/index.htm