Risk quantification of early outcome after lung transplantation: donor, recipient, operative, and post-transplant parameters

Abstract

Background: Because there is no reliable evaluation system of recipient acuity after lung transplantation, comparing patients among centers is difficult. The purpose of our study was to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality and prolonged intensive care unit stay and to develop a scoring system to evaluate the severity of impairment and to predict surgical outcomes.

Methods: We prospectively collected data from 122 lung transplant recipients and from 119 donors from January 1997 to June 2000. We assessed donor, recipient, and operative factors; ischemic time; and immediate post-operative physiologic parameters to identify risk factors for 30-day mortality and prolonged intensive care unit stay. Furthermore, we sub-classified these factors into grades to develop a scoring system for predicting surgical outcomes.

Results: Cardiopulmonary bypass use, body mass index >25 kg/m2, immediate post-operative systolic pulmonary arterial pressure, trend of oxygenation index from 12 to 24 hours after transplantation, and the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score correlated significantly with outcomes, and the sum of these 5 scores correlated strongly with outcomes (p < 0.0001).

Conclusions: We conclude that the total score of these 5 risk factors could be used to predict 30-day mortality and prolonged intensive care unit stay. This scoring system also will facilitate standardization among transplant centers in evaluating post-transplant severity of illness.