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. 2004 Feb;94(2):251-2.
doi: 10.2105/ajph.94.2.251.

Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired)

David Mendez  1 , Kenneth E Warner
Affiliations

Adult cigarette smoking prevalence: declining as expected (not as desired)

David Mendez et al. Am J Public Health. 2004 Feb.

Abstract

We compared observed smoking prevalence data for 1995-2002 with predictions derived from a previously published population dynamics model to determine whether the recent trend in smoking prevalence is consistent with the downward pattern we predicted. The observed data fit our projections closely (R 2 =.89). Consistent with the logic underlying the model, we conclude that adult smoking prevalence will continue to fall for the foreseeable future, although at a rate approximately half that of the decline experienced during the 1970s and 1980s.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Observed versus predicted adult smoking prevalence in the United States (with confidence intervals).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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