Analysis of chronic heart failure registry in the Tohoku district: third year follow-up

Abstract

Background: Because the real prognosis of Japanese patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) is still unknown, the aim of the present study was to clarify the prognosis and predictors for mortality of CHF patients using the Chronic Heart failure Analysis and Registry in Tohoku district (CHART).

Methods and results: As of February 2003, 1,154 stable CHF patients with optimum standard therapy have been enrolled in the registry since February 2000 and of these, 175 died of some cause during the follow-up period (mean follow-up period, 1.9+/-0.9 years), giving 1- and 3-year all-cause mortality rates of 7.3% and 20.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age at entry, diabetes, ventricular tachycardia, plasma concentration of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class and rural residence were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio: 1.028, 1.940, 1.650, 1.001, 1.713, and 2.226). The 1-year all-cause mortality rates of CHF patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction <25%, left ventricular end-diastolic diameter > or =60 mm, BNP > or =500 pg/ml, NYHA > or = III, or with underlying coronary artery disease were 15.0%, 11.4%, 16.8%, 16.3%, and 10.8%, respectively.

Conclusions: The prognosis of Japanese CHF patients with these predictors remains poor. A stratified approach is necessary to improve their survival and quality of life.