Determinants of fertility decline in China, 1981: analysis of intermediate variables

Abstract

This study examines the proximate determinants of fertility in China by making use of the data collected by the One-per-Thousand Sample Fertility Survey of 1982. The results indicate that the most important inhibitor of potential fertility is deliberate control. Its contribution to fertility change has been far greater than all other proximate determinants. The marital structure of the population is also an important factor, while lactational infecundability and induced abortion are relatively unimportant. Comparative results by using data from the In-depth Fertility Survey conducted in Shanghai Municipality, Hebei and Shaanxi Provinces in April 1985 agree well in the ranking of the four intermediate factors. The findings point to successful family planning program and government population policies, which propelled the fertility transition to a substantial degree. Further research needs and policy implications of the results of the study are discussed.

PIP: Data from the 1/1000 household survey, 1982, in China were used in the analysis of the proximate determinants of levels and differentials in fertility for China. Prior studies were conducted on Beijing and Shanghai Municipality and findings are compared. The Bongaarts model is discussed. Research and policy implications are also considered. Data are rearranged for the year 1981. Singh's weighted indexes of proportion married, contraception, and postpartum infecundability are used as better and more precise estimates. The full detail of the calculations of the indexes is given. The results indicate that contraception is the most significant (.367) along with the effect of marital structure (.566). Abortion (.832) and infecundability (.852) had minimal effects on fertility reduction. 52.2% of the inhibiting effects on the total fertility rate are due to contraception, followed by marital structure at 29.8%. With universal marriage, it is suggested that the compulsory delay in age at marriage contributes to the decline. Induced abortion reduced fertility by 9.6% and lactational infecundability by 8.4%. Compared with Shanghai Municipality and Hebei and Shaanxi provinces, contraception has the most pronounced effect in 1985 vs. 1981, and Shanghai with the more developed socioeconomic position had the most pronounced effect. Marital structure also was more pronounced in Shanghai. Induced abortion has a significant inhibiting effect in Shanghai in 1985, but postpartum infecundability has the least as expected. With the exception of abortion in Shanghai, the results are similar between the 3 provinces and all of China. Total fertility rate (TFR) for China is 2.62 and is very close to the developed country TFR of 2.06. The contraception index is .61 in China and .69 in developing countries. The index of contraception and proportion married is higher in China than in developed countries, while the Chinese infecundability index is lower. Developed countries have a shorter period (3 months vs. China's 5 months). China's infecundability index is similar to semideveloped countries. In the future, it is unlikely that the proportion married index will change. The duration of breast feeding should be increased to improve child health and affect fertility. Abortion research is needed. Differentials in deliberate fertility control should also be examined among different income and educational groups.