[Trends analysis of common urologic neoplasm incidence of elderly people in Shanghai, 1973-1999]

Abstract

Background & objective: Few studies on trend analysis in cancer incidence of the elderly people in China. The purpose of this study was to analyze time trends in urologic cancer incidence of the elderly people during the period 1973-1999 in Shanghai.

Methods: The registered cancer cases were coded according to the 3-digit rubrics of the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9). Population estimates were based on periodic censuses, with age- and sex-specific annual estimates derived by linear inter- and extrapolation for the remaining years. The age-standardized rates adjusted to the world population were calculated for nine 3-year periods. Annual percent changes in incidence were estimated by means of a linear regression of the respective rates on the mid-point of calendar years, weighted by the number of cases.

Results: During the 27-year period, cancers of prostate, bladder, and kidney have risen substantially among elderly male residents in Shanghai. The annual percent changes were 6.60%, 1.15%, and 5.30%, respectively. Among the elderly women, the rate of kidney cancer increased rapidly, with the annual percent change of 4.87%. The 75 years and older age group in women had substantial increases in incidence rates of bladder cancer.

Conclusion: From 1973 to 1999, the incidence rates of the commonly urologic cancers increased substantially among the elderly residents in Shanghai, except for female bladder cancer.