Up-to-date long-term survival of cancer patients: an evaluation of period analysis on Swedish Cancer Registry data

Abstract

The natural development of cancers as well as the measures to fight the disease are often long processes that require decades of follow up. Available information on long-term survival will thus often appear outdated and irrelevant. A few years ago, period-survival analysis was proposed as a means to obtain more up-to-date information on long-term cancer survival. This article assesses period and conventional cohort-based survival analyses on their ability to predict future survival. Based on historical data from the nationwide Swedish Cancer Registry 5-, 10- and 15-year relative survival actually observed for patients diagnosed at one particular point in time are compared to the most recent period and cohort-based survival estimates available at that point in time. The study shows that period analysis can, in most cases, be used to provide more up-to-date long-term estimates of cancer survival. Period analysis reduces the time lag of the survival estimates by some 5-10 years for all cancers combined and especially affects the survival estimates for small intestine carcinoids, meningioma and intracranial neurinoma of the brain, non-seminoma testicular cancer, chronic lymphocytic leukaemia and Hodgkin's lymphoma.