Principles, application areas and an example of risk assessment conducted at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research

Abstract

The Department for Epidemiology and Risk Analysis at the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) is concerned with risk analyses in the areas of food safety, zoonoses, antimicrobial resistance and OIE (World Organisation for Animal Health) list A and B diseases. The DFVF is responsible for the risk assessment component of the risk analysis process and provides advice and support for the risk management and risk communication component, which is generally under the auspices of the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration (DVFA). The paper presents guidelines for the conduct of risk assessments at the DFVF. Important elements of these guidelines are the independence between risk assessment and risk management, the commitment to science-based, transparent and fully documented procedures and adherence to a protocol that regulates the cooperation between DFVF and DVFA. Typical steps of a quantitative risk assessment are the description of the risk scenario, information retrieval, mathematical modelling with stochastic simulation, final risk estimation with a sensitivity analysis and reporting. The procedure is exemplified using a Monte Carlo simulation model for the assessment of the risk of BSE transmission to calves by tallow-based calf milk replacer.