Comparison between the predictions of a Gaussian plume model and a Lagrangian particle dispersion model for annual average calculations of long-range dispersion of radionuclides

Abstract

This study attempts to validate the applicability of a simple Gaussian dispersion model for predicting long-range dispersion of continuous releases from an industrial site, by comparison with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model. The United Kingdom Meteorological Office model NAME has been used to predict annual average concentrations of radionuclides over Western Europe, resulting from discharges from the British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) site at Sellafield, UK. The results are compared here to calculations performed using a conventional Gaussian type of dispersion model, PLUME. The results of the Gaussian model were compared at 14 locations within Western Europe at long range (up to 1700 km). The differences in predictions between the models were explained readily by differences in the way dispersion and deposition processes are represented in the two models. However, differences are generally small compared to the expected precision of the models. The implementation of environmental processes in NAME is more complete and realistic than in PLUME, and as such the results from this model may be considered more realistic. However, given that PLUME is much simpler to use, and appears to over-estimate, rather than under-estimate, environmental concentrations, its use for radiological assessments appears appropriate.