Probabilistic analysis of accident precursors in the nuclear industry

Abstract

Feedback of operating experience has always been an important issue in the nuclear industry. A probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) can be used as a tool to analyse how an operational event might have developed adversely in order to obtain a quantitative assessment of the safety significance of the event. This process is called PSA-based event analysis (PSAEA). A comprehensive set of PSAEA guidelines was developed by an international project. The main characteristics of this methodology are summarised. This approach to analyse incidents can be used to meet different objectives of utilities or nuclear regulators. The paper describes the main objectives and the experiences of the Belgian nuclear regulatory organisation AVN with the application of PSA-based event analysis. Some interesting aspects of the process of PSAEA are further developed and underlined. Several case studies are discussed and an overview of the obtained results is given. Finally, the interest of a broad and interactive forum on PSAEA is highlighted.