Sports betting: can gamblers beat randomness?

Abstract

Although skills are not considered relevant in chance-governed activities, only a few studies have assessed the extent to which sport expert skills in wagering are a manifestation of the illusion of control. This study examined (a) whether expert hockey bettors could make better predictions than chance, (b) whether expert hockey bettors could achieve greater monetary gains than chance, and (c) what kind of strategies hockey gamblers rely on when betting. Accordingly, 30 participants were asked to report their state lottery hockey bets on 6 occasions. We suggest that the information used by bettors, along with near-misses, reinforces their perception of expertise. The results of this experiment suggest that the so-called "skills" of the sports bettors are cognitive distortions.