Decision analysis: a review

Abstract

Decision analysis has been used increasingly to investigate complex medical decision problems and technologies. Four steps comprise the conduct of a decision analysis: construction of a decision tree, assignment of values to probabilities and outcomes, averaging out and folding back, and sensitivity analysis. Personal computer software is available to facilitate these tasks. Relevant outcome measures, such as the declining exponential approximation of life expectancy, have improved analysts' ability to express results in clinically pertinent terms. Decision analysis is a useful tool for exploring the uncertain and often ambiguous clinical problems facing primary care providers.