Number and gestational age of prior preterm births does not modify the predictive value of a short cervix

Abstract

Objective: This study was undertaken to determine whether the number and gestational age of prior preterm deliveries modifies the significance of endovaginal sonographic cervical length less than 25 mm for the prediction of recurrent preterm birth less than 35 weeks' gestation.

Study design: Secondary analysis of a multicenter, blinded, observational study. Endovaginal ultrasonographic examinations were scheduled at 2-week intervals between 16 and 23 weeks' gestation in singleton pregnancies of 181 gravid women with at least 1 prior spontaneous preterm birth between 16 and 32 weeks' gestation.

Results: The earliest prior preterm birth occurred before 23 weeks in 61 women and at 23.0 to 31 weeks in 115; 5 had missing gestational age data. Cervical length was not different between these 2 groups both at the initial scan (median 38 vs 37 mm, P=.54) and considering the shortest ever observed cervical length over the entire study period (median 30 vs 30 mm, P=.97). Cervical length less than 25 mm was associated with spontaneous preterm birth less than 35 weeks for both groups (positive predictive value 80% vs 71%, P>.99). There were 134 women with 1 prior preterm delivery (74%) and 47 with 2 or more. Cervical lengths were not different between these 2 groups at the initial scan (median 36.5 vs 37 mm, P=.52) or over the entire study period (median 30 vs 32 mm, P=.31). The positive predictive value of cervical length less than 25 mm for subsequent spontaneous premature birth was not significantly higher in gravid women with multiple prior preterm births (100% vs 73%, P>.99).

Conclusion: Neither the number nor the gestational age of prior preterm births modify the predictive value of a cervical length less than 25 mm at 16 to 19 weeks for recurrent spontaneous preterm birth.