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. 2004 Sep;15(5):529-35.
doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000134867.12896.23.

The value of risk-factor ("black-box") epidemiology

Sander Greenland  1 , Manuela Gago-Dominguez, Jose Esteban Castelao
Affiliations

The value of risk-factor ("black-box") epidemiology

Sander Greenland et al. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep.

Abstract

Risk-factor epidemiology has been denigrated by some as an empty search for associations, unguided by underlying theory. It has been defended for occasionally identifying useful (if poorly understood) potential interventions. We further defend risk-factor epidemiology as a valuable source of seemingly unrelated facts that await coherent explanation by novel theories and that provide empiric tests of theories. We illustrate these points with a theory that invokes lipid peroxidation as an explanation of an apparently incoherent accumulation of facts about renal-cell carcinoma. The example illustrates the value of viewing epidemiologic, laboratory, and clinical observations as a body of facts demanding explanation by proposed causal theories, whether or not those observations were collected with any hypothesis in mind.

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Comment in

  • Eco-epidemiology: thinking outside the black box.
    Susser E. Susser E. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep;15(5):519-20; author reply 527-8. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000135911.42282.b4. Epidemiology. 2004. PMID: 15308946 No abstract available.
  • An epistemologist among the epidemiologists.
    Haack S. Haack S. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep;15(5):521-2; author reply 527-8. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000134539.83076.59. Epidemiology. 2004. PMID: 15308947 No abstract available.
  • When can risk-factor epidemiology provide reliable tests?
    Mayo DG, Spanos A. Mayo DG, et al. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep;15(5):523-4; author reply 527-8. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000135912.17991.72. Epidemiology. 2004. PMID: 15308948 No abstract available.
  • Presents can come in black boxes, too.
    Weiss NS. Weiss NS. Epidemiology. 2004 Sep;15(5):525-6; author reply 527-8. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000135175.11460.27. Epidemiology. 2004. PMID: 15308949 No abstract available.
  • "Black-box" epidemiology.
    Neutra RR. Neutra RR. Epidemiology. 2005 May;16(3):418-9; author reply 419. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000158798.73608.44. Epidemiology. 2005. PMID: 15824567 No abstract available.
  • "Black-box" epidemiology.
    Mejía-Aranguré JM, Fajardo-Gutiérrez A, Ortega-Alvarez M. Mejía-Aranguré JM, et al. Epidemiology. 2005 May;16(3):418; author reply 419. doi: 10.1097/01.ede.0000158791.23021.5b. Epidemiology. 2005. PMID: 15824568 No abstract available.

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