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Comparative Study
. 2004 Aug 7;271 Suppl 5(Suppl 5):S364-6.
doi: 10.1098/rsbl.2004.0188.

Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks

Balázs Szendroi  1 , Gábor Csányi
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Polynomial epidemics and clustering in contact networks

Balázs Szendroi et al. Proc Biol Sci. .

Abstract

It is widely known that the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the epidemic, and describe a general mechanism, related to the clustering properties of the disease transmission network, that is capable of explaining this reduction. Our considerations provide what is, to our knowledge, a new angle on polynomial epidemic processes, and may have implications for the choice of strategy against such epidemics.

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