Analysis of changes in the pilot population and general aviation accidents

Abstract

General Aviation pilots have been involved in a steadily decreasing number of accidents over the past 20 years. Changes in the age distribution, certification, and flying habits of these pilots make direct comparison of accident statistics inaccurate. This study reviews changes in the pilot population over the past 20 years to analyze their impact on accident statistics. Pilot age and certificate distributions from 1968 to 1987 were assembled from annual Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) surveys. Information about pilots involved in accidents was collected from annual National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports. Trends in pilot age distribution, certification, aircraft use, flight planning, and weather were reviewed. The accident experience from the first 5 years of the study period was used to construct an adjusted plot of expected aircraft accidents. From 1968-87, the mean pilot age increased from 35 to 40 years and the number of pilots over the age of 60 increased five-fold. The number of pilots with Air Transport Pilot (ATP) certification tripled and instrument certification increased 80%. Accidents where an Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) flight plan was filed increased from 3.6% to 6.6% without a corresponding increase in the number of accidents in weather at or below instrument meteorologic conditions (IMC). The accident experience from 1968 to 1973 predicted 116,000 accidents from 1968 to 1987. The actual number of accidents was 40% less than predicted. The average pilot age has increased both due to more pilots over the age of 50 and less young student pilots.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)