The "big win" and resistance to extinction when gambling

Abstract

One hypothesis for the reason a person might become a pathological gambler is that the individual initially experiences a big win, which creates a fallacious expectation of winning, which may then lead to persistent gambling despite suffering large losses. Although this hypothesis has been around for several decades, only one controlled empirical study has addressed it, and that study reported null results. In the present experiment, the authors tested the "big win" hypothesis by having 4 groups of participants with little to no experience gambling play a computer-simulated slot machine for credits that were exchangeable for cash. One group experienced a large win on the very 1st play. Another experienced a large win on the 5th play. A 3rd group experienced 2 small wins on the 2nd and 5th plays. No other winning outcomes were programmed. The 4th group never experienced a win. The authors observed a significant effect of group. Participants who experienced a large win on the 1st play quit playing the simulation earlier than participants who experienced a large win on the 5th play. These results appear to question the "big win" as an explanation for pathological gambling. They are more consistent with a behavioral theory of gambling behavior. The present study should also promote the use of laboratory-based research to test long-standing hypotheses in the gambling literature.