Assessment of the impact of somatic cell count on functional longevity in Holstein and Jersey cattle using survival analysis methodology

Abstract

Survival analysis in a Weibull proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the impact of somatic cell count (SCC) on the involuntary culling rate of US Holstein and Jersey cows with first calvings from 1990 to 2000. The full data set, consisting of records from 978,043 Holstein and 250,835 Jersey cows, was divided into subsets (5 for Holsteins and 3 for Jerseys) based on herd average lactation SCC values. Functional longevity (also known as herd life or length of productive life) was defined as days from first calving until culling or censoring, after correcting for milk production. Our model included the time-dependent effects of herd-year-season, parity by stage of lactation interaction, within-herd-year quintile ranking for mature equivalent production, and lactation average SCC (rounded to the nearest 50,000 cells/mL), as well as the time-independent effect of age at first calving. Parameters of the Weibull distribution, as well as variance components for herd-year-season effects, were estimated within each group of herds. Mean failure and censoring times decreased as herd average SCC increased, and a nonlinear relationship was observed between SCC and longevity in all groups. The risk of culling for Holstein cows with lactation average SCC > 700,000 cells/mL was 3.4, 2.7, or 2.3 times greater, respectively, than that of Holstein cows with SCC of 200,000 to 250,000 cells/mL in herds with low, medium, or high average SCC. Likewise, the risk of culling for Jersey cows with lactation average SCC > 700,000 cells/mL was 4.0, 2.9, or 2.2 times greater, respectively, than that of Jersey cows with SCC of 200,000 to 250,000 cells/mL in low, medium, or high SCC herds. These trends may reflect more stringent culling of high SCC cows in herds with few mastitis problems. In addition, cows with lactation average SCC <100,000 cells/mL had a slightly higher risk of culling than cows with SCC of 100,000 to 200,000 cells/mL in both breeds, particularly in herds with high average SCC, where exposure to mastitis pathogens was likely.