The expected burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain from 2002 to 2050

Abstract

The British mesothelioma register contains all deaths from 1968 to 2001 where mesothelioma was mentioned on the death certificate. These data were used to predict the future burden of mesothelioma mortality in Great Britain. Poisson regression analysis was used to model male mesothelioma deaths from 1968 to 2001 as a function of the rise and fall of asbestos exposure during the 20th century, and hence to predict numbers of male deaths in the years 2002-2050. The annual number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain has risen increasingly rapidly from 153 deaths in 1968 to 1848 in 2001 and, using our preferred model, is predicted to peak at around 1950 to 2450 deaths per year between 2011 and 2015. Following this peak, the number of deaths is expected to decline rapidly. The eventual death rate will depend on the background level and any residual asbestos exposure. Between 1968 and 2050, there will have been approximately 90,000 deaths from mesothelioma in Great Britain, 65,000 of which will occur after 2001.

Figure 1

(A) Mesothelioma death rates by 5-year cohort and age group for males born 1878–1937 (note: The earlier cohorts are to the lower right of the chart). (B) Mesothelioma death rates by 5-year cohort and age group for males born 1938–1982 (note: The earlier cohorts are to the upper left of the chart).

Figure 2

Mesothelioma deaths by sex and year.

Figure 3

Average annual male mesothelioma death rates per million by age and time period.

Figure 4

(A) Observed and fitted deaths by year of birth. (B) Observed and fitted deaths by age. (C) Observed and fitted mesothelioma deaths by year of death, with derived exposure index. (D) Number of observed and fitted mesothelioma deaths for 1955–1980 yearly birth cohorts.

Figure 5

(A) Fitted import index for nonclearance model with best approximating weighting of actual import series (amosite+0.7 × crocidolite. (B). Fitted import index for clearance model with best approximating weighting of actual import series (amosite+2.2 × crocidolite).