Effect of population aging on proportionate mortality from heart disease and cancer, U.S. 2000-2050

Abstract

Objective: One-fourth of all deaths in the United States occur after age 85 (646,900 of 2,392,619 total deaths in 1999). By 2050 (assuming 1999 age-specific death rates), 47.4% of all deaths will occur after age 85 (2,994,935 of 6,314,725 total deaths). As we age, heart disease becomes increasingly important relative to cancer as a cause of death. Thus, as age at death is postponed, future populations will be dying of different age-specific causes. The study objective was to project the effect of population aging on future proportionate mortality rates for heart disease and cancer.

Methods: Using Census Bureau population projections and assuming 1999 age-specific death rates, the authors calculated the number of deaths from heart disease, cancer, and all causes in 10-year intervals from 2000 to 2050.

Result: During this period, the total number of deaths for heart disease and cancer will increase 2.8-fold and 2.3-fold, respectively. The proportionate mortality rate for heart disease will increase from 30% to 33%, and the rate for cancer will drop from 23% to 20%.

Discussion: Changes in age distribution between now and 2050 will cause heart disease to increase its dominance over all other causes of death, and proportionate mortality for cancer will decline.