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. 2005 Mar 17;352(11):1138-45.
doi: 10.1056/NEJMsr043743.

A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century

S Jay Olshansky  1 , Douglas J Passaro, Ronald C Hershow, Jennifer Layden, Bruce A Carnes, Jacob Brody, Leonard Hayflick, Robert N Butler, David B Allison, David S Ludwig
Affiliations
Free article

A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century

S Jay Olshansky et al. N Engl J Med. .
Free article

Abstract

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

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Comment in

  • Deadweight?--The influence of obesity on longevity.
    Preston SH. Preston SH. N Engl J Med. 2005 Mar 17;352(11):1135-7. doi: 10.1056/NEJMe058009. N Engl J Med. 2005. PMID: 15784667 No abstract available.
  • Obesity and longevity.
    Whitehouse FW. Whitehouse FW. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16;352(24):2555; author reply 2556-7. doi: 10.1056/NEJM200506163522419. N Engl J Med. 2005. PMID: 15958816 No abstract available.
  • Obesity and longevity.
    Carpenter AH. Carpenter AH. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16;352(24):2556. N Engl J Med. 2005. PMID: 15962410 No abstract available.
  • Obesity and longevity.
    Suter PM, Moser C. Suter PM, et al. N Engl J Med. 2005 Jun 16;352(24):2556. N Engl J Med. 2005. PMID: 15962411 No abstract available.

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