Monte Carlo simulation of animal-product violations incurred by air passengers at an international airport in Taiwan

Abstract

Our aim was to evaluate the inspection of arriving passengers for the illegal transport of animal products through the international airport into Taiwan. Passenger-violation data were retrieved from the Bureau of Animal and Plant Health Inspection and Quarantine (BAPHIQ) in Taiwan. Monte Carlo simulations with 5000 iterations were applied to estimate the predicted violation numbers considering factors such as passenger's nationality/ethnicity, sex, and monthly statistics of violations. The results showed that Chinese-related passengers and passengers from South East Asian countries have a relatively higher potential risk for incurring violations during the period from Christmas to Chinese Lunar New Year. Most monthly estimated violation risks are significantly higher than observed violation risks in 2001 and 2002, except April, July, and August. Due to the low sensitivity of the current detection system (reflected by the higher estimated violation risks and a two-fold detection increase after the implementation of an inspection service using detector dogs), we recommend additional preventive measures be taken.