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. 2005;24 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):W5R5-17.
doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r5.

Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly

Dana P Goldman  1 , Baoping Shang, Jayanta Bhattacharya, Alan M Garber, Michael Hurd, Geoffrey F Joyce, Darius N Lakdawalla, Constantijn Panis, Paul G Shekelle
Affiliations

Consequences of health trends and medical innovation for the future elderly

Dana P Goldman et al. Health Aff (Millwood). 2005.

Abstract

Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers how these confluent trends will affect the elderly's health status and health care spending over the next thirty years. Because healthier people live longer, cumulative Medicare spending varies little with a beneficiary's disease and disability status upon entering Medicare. On the other hand, ten of the most promising medical technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a "silver bullet" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending.

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Figures

Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1.
Overview of the Simulation Model
Exhibit 3.
Exhibit 3.. Disability Among the Elderly Under Three Scenarios, 2005–2030
Notes for Exhibits 3 and 4: The Figures show forecasts of disability prevalence and health care costs under three scenarios based on data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey and the National Health Interview Study. Scenario A, our preferred scenario, incorporates health status information for younger cohorts, including information on prevalence of disability and major chronic conditions. Scenario B ignores this information and assumes that entrants to Medicare resemble recent entrants. Scenario C assumes that disability is falling among all the elderly based on trends from the 1990’s
Exhibit 4.
Exhibit 4.
Health Care Spending by the Elderly, 2004 to 2030
Exhibit 5.
Exhibit 5.. Cancer Classification and Eligibility for Breakthrough Treatment
Notes: Figure shows the prevalence of various forms of cancer in the elderly Medicare population. Eligibility for three cancer treatments are shown: TI=telomerase inhibitors; CV=cancer vaccines; and AA=anti-angiogenesis.
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