Retrospective analysis of time to recurrence in the ATAC trial according to hormone receptor status: an hypothesis-generating study

Abstract

Purpose: Arimidex, tamoxifen alone, or in combination (ATAC) trial of anastrozole (Arimidex) versus tamoxifen or a combination of the two in 9,366 postmenopausal patients with primary breast cancer found a significant improvement in disease-free survival and time to recurrence (TTR) for anastrozole compared with tamoxifen, that was restricted to patients with hormone receptor-positive (ie, estrogen receptor-positive [ER+] and/or progesterone receptor-positive [PgR+]) disease, the target population for these therapies. We retrospectively tested the hypothesis that this benefit might differ according to PgR status.

Patients and methods: TTR was compared between the three treatment groups for subgroups defined by ER and PgR status using Cox's proportional hazards model, with and without adjustment for baseline variables.

Results: The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for anastrozole versus tamoxifen for TTR was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.87) for women with either ER+ or PgR+ tumors. In the ER+/PgR+ subgroup (n = 3,834) the HR was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.69 to 1.02) compared with 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31 to 0.61) in the ER+/PgR-negative (PgR-) subgroup (n = 880). In the adjusted model the HRs were 0.83 and 0.45, respectively.

Conclusion: Time to recurrence was longer for anastrozole- than tamoxifen-treated patients in both ER+/PgR+ and ER+/PgR- subgroups, but the benefit was substantially greater in the PgR- subgroup. As this was an "exploratory" analysis, this effect should be considered as hypothesis generating and assessed prospectively in other trials comparing the adjuvant use of an aromatase inhibitor with tamoxifen.