Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2005 Dec 1:5:37.
doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-5-37.

Stability of response characteristics of a Delphi panel: application of bootstrap data expansion

Ralitsa B Akins  1 , Homer Tolson, Bryan R Cole
Affiliations

Stability of response characteristics of a Delphi panel: application of bootstrap data expansion

Ralitsa B Akins et al. BMC Med Res Methodol. .

Abstract

Background: Delphi surveys with panels of experts in a particular area of interest have been widely utilized in the fields of clinical medicine, nursing practice, medical education and healthcare services. Despite this wide applicability of the Delphi methodology, there is no clear identification of what constitutes a sufficient number of Delphi survey participants to ensure stability of results.

Methods: The study analyzed the response characteristics from the first round of a Delphi survey conducted with 23 experts in healthcare quality and patient safety. The panel members had similar training and subject matter understanding of the Malcolm Baldrige Criteria for Performance Excellence in Healthcare. The raw data from the first round sampling, which usually contains the largest diversity of responses, were augmented via bootstrap sampling to obtain computer-generated results for two larger samples obtained by sampling with replacement. Response characteristics (mean, trimmed mean, standard deviation and 95% confidence intervals) for 54 survey items were compared for the responses of the 23 actual study participants and two computer-generated samples of 1000 and 2000 resampling iterations.

Results: The results from this study indicate that the response characteristics of a small expert panel in a well-defined knowledge area are stable in light of augmented sampling.

Conclusion: Panels of similarly trained experts (who possess a general understanding in the field of interest) provide effective and reliable utilization of a small sample from a limited number of experts in a field of study to develop reliable criteria that inform judgment and support effective decision-making.

PubMed Disclaimer

References

    1. Williams PL, Webb C. The Delphi technique: a methodological discussion. J Adv Nurs. 1994;19:180–6. - PubMed
    1. Fischer RG. The Delphi method: a description, review and criticism. J Acad Librariansh. 1978;4:64–70.
    1. Wilhelm WJ. Alchemy of the Oracle: the Delphi technique. The Delta Pi Epsilon Journal. 2001;43:6–26.
    1. Reid NG. The Delphi technique: its contribution to the evaluation of professional practice. In: Ellis R, editor. Professional competence and quality assurance in the caring professions. New York, NY: Chapman and Hall; 1988.
    1. Malone DC, Abarca J, Hansten PD, Grizzle AJ, Armstrong EP, Van Bergen RC, Duncan-Edgar BS, Solomon SL, Lipton RB. Identification of serious drug-drug interactions: results of the partnership to prevent drug-drug interactions. Am J Geriatr Pharmacother. 2005;3:65–76. doi: 10.1016/j.amjopharm.2005.05.001. - DOI - PubMed

Publication types

LinkOut - more resources