PDAY risk score predicts advanced coronary artery atherosclerosis in middle-aged persons as well as youth

Abstract

A risk score formula to estimate the probability of advanced atherosclerosis using coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors was developed for persons 15-34 years of age by the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) study. We applied the PDAY risk score to autopsied individuals from the Community Pathology Study (CPS), a different population that included middle-aged as well as young subjects. The PDAY risk score was associated with extent of raised lesions in the coronary arteries of CPS cases 15-34 years of age. The PDAY risk score computed from only the modifiable risk factors was associated with extent of raised lesions in the coronary arteries of subjects 35-54 years of age. The association of the PDAY risk score with lesions in 15-34 year old CPS subjects validates the PDAY risk score. The associations in both younger (15-34 years) and older (35-54 years) subjects suggest a seamless progression of the effects of the modifiable risk factors on atherosclerosis from 15 to 54 years of age. These results support the proposal that early control of risk factors is likely to prevent or delay the onset of CHD.