[Future cancer incidents in Germany]

Abstract

The future as well as the past development of cancer incidents in Germany is of continuous importance for health policy. Cancer incidence data observed over more than 20 years are analysed by log-linear models with polynomial trend components. The estimated trend models are used for a trend extrapolation until the year 2020. Since cancer registration in Germany is not complete yet and does not cover the whole area of the country national incidences are estimated by the data of the existing complete regional cancer registries. In this way it can be assessed that the number of new cancer diseases increased from 270,000 cases in 1980 to 420,000 cases in 2002. Extrapolating the trends and taking into account the demographic prognosis of the German Federal Statistical Office 570,000 (version 1) or 590,000 (version 9) annual cancer cases are predicted for the year 2020. From 1980 to 2002 a decrease of cancer mortality was observed. If this trend continues until 2020, the number of deaths caused by cancer would decrease from 209,000 in 2002 to 153,000 (or 158,000) in 2020, although the number of cancer cases are predicted to increase. Assuming constant mortality rates the number of deaths caused by cancer would be much higher.