A methodology for estimating the population by ethnic group for areas within England

Abstract

This article-describes the methodology used to produce experimental estimates of the population of England, and its local authority districts, by ethnic group. The approach used is a cohort component methodology with population counts, and each component of population change, constrained to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Mid-Year Population Estimates. Consideration is given to the modelling of the ethnic dimension of mortality; fertility (and the allocation of ethnic group to infants); switching between ethnic group categories; and the various aspects of migration, with particular attention given to the application of commissioned census data. A description and analysis of the estimates themselves will be the subject of a separate article in Population Trends.