[Quantitative analysis of factors affected mortality trend in Chinese, 2002]

Abstract

Objective: To explain trend of death in Chinese by quantitative analysis of demographic and non-demographic factors and estimate the proportion of contribution of non-demographic and demographic factors.

Methods: Using census data and death causes data of National Disease Surveillance Points at 1991 and 2000 to calculate the proportion of contribution of demographic and non-demographic factors and to change on various death causes from 1991 to 2000 by methods of decomposing the differences of death rates.

Results: The death rate showed a rapid decrease during 1950 - 1975, mainly owing to the contribution of non-demographic factors, including economic development, popularization of education and health service, especially the "patriotic hygiene movement". During 1991 - 2000, the death causes of lung cancer, liver cancer, breast cancer, chronic heart disease, stroke, diabetes and traffic accident had been increasing. The increase of deaths caused by these diseases were contributed to the non-demographic factors including 63% of the increase on lung cancer and 88% of increase on death rate of traffic accidents.

Conclusion: The study showed that the risk factors had contributed to the increase of death rates, including behavioral risk factors described in the preceding 5 papers as smoking and passive smoking, unhealthy diet, sedentary life style, violating traffic regulation etc. In order to reduce the death rates on cancer, heart diseases, diabetes, traffic accidents, emphasis should be also laid on the change of unhealthy behaviors.