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. 2006 Apr;12(4):543-8.
doi: 10.3201/eid1204.051569.

Negligible risk for epidemics after geophysical disasters

Nathalie Floret  1 , Jean-François Viel, Frédéric Mauny, Bruno Hoen, Renaud Piarroux
Affiliations

Negligible risk for epidemics after geophysical disasters

Nathalie Floret et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Apr.

Abstract

After geophysical disasters (i.e., earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis), media reports almost always stress the risk for epidemics; whether this risk is genuine has been debated. We analyzed the medical literature and data from humanitarian agencies and the World Health Organization from 1985 to 2004. Of >600 geophysical disasters recorded, we found only 3 reported outbreaks related to these disasters: 1 of measles after the eruption of Pinatubo in Philippines, 1 of coccidioidomycosis after an earthquake in California, and 1 of Plasmodium vivax malaria in Costa Rica related to an earthquake and heavy rainfall. Even though the humanitarian response may play a role in preventing epidemics, our results lend support to the epidemiologic evidence that short-term risk for epidemics after a geophysical disaster is very low.

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Comment in

  • Shigellosis and cryptosporidiosis, Baltimore, Maryland.
    Hartley DM, Klontz KC, Ryan P, Morris JG Jr. Hartley DM, et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jul;12(7):1164-5. doi: 10.3201/eid1207.060449. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006. PMID: 16845778 Free PMC article. No abstract available.
  • Epidemic risk after disasters.
    Watson J, Gayer M, Connolly MA. Watson J, et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Sep;12(9):1468; author reply 1469. doi: 10.3201/eid1209.060500. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006. PMID: 17073111 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

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