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. 2006 May;12(5):813-20.
doi: 10.3201/eid1205.051284.

Spatial analysis of sleeping sickness, southeastern Uganda, 1970-2003

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Spatial analysis of sleeping sickness, southeastern Uganda, 1970-2003

Lea Berrang-Ford et al. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 May.

Abstract

Sleeping sickness re-emerged in southeastern Uganda in the 1970s and remains a public health problem. It has continued to spread north into new districts, and gaps remain in the understanding of the causes of its spread and distribution. We report the distribution and magnitude of sleeping sickness in southeastern Uganda from 1970 to 2003. Data were collected from records of the Ugandan Ministry of Health, individual sleeping sickness treatment centers, and interviews with public health officials. Data were used to develop incidence maps over time, conduct space-time cluster detection analyses, and develop a velocity vector map to visualize spread of sleeping sickness over time in southeastern Uganda. Results show rapid propagation of sleeping sickness from its epicenter in southern Iganga District and its spread north into new districts and foci.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Location of the study site in southeastern (SE) Uganda. The star indicates the capital of Kampala. Inset shows surrounding countries in Africa.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Records room at Bugiri Hospital sleeping sickness treatment center, Uganda.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Number of sleeping sickness cases and infected subcounties, southeastern Uganda, 1970–2003. Number of recorded cases refer to totals for southeastern Uganda. Sources: 1970–1971, D.B. Mbulamberi, unpub. data; 1972–1975 (18); and 1976–2001 (Ministry of Health, 2004).
Figure 4
Figure 4
Sleeping sickness incidence, southeastern Uganda, 1970–1975, by subcounty. Circle indicates a significant space-time cluster at the 95% confidence level, as detected by the space-time scan test. See Table for scan test results.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Sleeping sickness incidence, southeastern Uganda, 1976–1979, by subcounty. Circle indicates a significant space-time cluster at the 95% confidence level, as detected by the space-time scan test. See Table for scan test results.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Sleeping sickness incidence, southeastern Uganda, 1980–1988, by subcounty. Circle indicates a significant space-time cluster at the 95% confidence level, as detected by the space-time scan test. See Table for scan test results.
Figure 7
Figure 7
Sleeping sickness incidence in southeastern Uganda, 1989–1997, by subcounty. Circle indicates a significant space-time cluster at the 95% confidence level, as detected by the space-time scan test. See Table for scan test results.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Sleeping sickness incidence in southeastern Uganda, 1998–2003, by subcounty. Circles indicate significant primary (A) and secondary (B, C, and D) space-time clusters at the 95% confidence level, as detected by the space-time scan test. Letters correspond to cluster results in Table. See Table for scan test results.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Velocity vectors (arrows) for the spread of sleeping sickness between subcounties in Uganda. Arrow length is proportional to velocity of spread.

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