Planning for avian influenza

Abstract

Avian influenza, or influenza A (H5N1), has 3 of the 4 properties necessary to cause a serious pandemic: It can infect people, nearly all people are immunologically naive, and it is highly lethal. The Achilles heel of the virus is the lack of sustained human-human transmission. Fortunately, among the 124 cases reported through 30 May 2006, nearly all were acquired by direct contact with poultry. Unfortunately, the capability for efficient human-human transmission requires only a single mutation by a virus that is notoriously genetically unstable, hence the need for a new vaccine each year for seasonal influenza. Influenza A (H5N1) is being compared to another avian strain, the agent of the "Spanish flu" of 1918-1919, which traversed the world in 3 months and caused an estimated 50 million deaths. The question is, are we ready for this type of pandemic? The answer is probably no. The main problems are the lack of an effective vaccine, very poor surge capacity, a health care system that could not accommodate even a modest pandemic, and erratic regional planning. It's time to get ready, and in the process be ready for bioterrorism, natural disasters, and epidemics of other infectious diseases.