Perspectives on the recent decline in disability at older ages

Abstract

This brief summarizes a recent study exploring the decline in disability observed among the elderly population in national, longitudinal surveys between 1982 and 1999. The brief outlines survey design features that may contribute to reports of declining disability. In addition, the brief explores social trends, such as reduced availability of informal care, increased use of assistive technologies and changes in respondents' perceptions of "disability" over time that may be important contributors to declining disability. Finally, the brief presents the results of a reanalysis of the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) to evaluate the role of several survey design and social factors on reported declines in disability. Using alternative measures of disability, this reanalysis confirmed that disability declined among the elderly population. However, the study found a more gradual decline in any disability compared to previous analyses of the NLTCS. These results point to the importance of survey design features and societal trends in interpreting recent declines in disability among the elderly.Further, the effects of survey design and societal factors on disability estimates make it difficult to extrapolate current disability trends into the future and to predict costs to Medicare, Medicaid and other public programs that serve the elderly.