Sensitivity and specificity of screening for Down syndrome with alpha-fetoprotein, hCG, unconjugated estriol, and maternal age

Abstract

The sensitivity and specificity of maternal serum screening for Down syndrome with different biochemical markers were evaluated. Detection rates with different combinations of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP), hCG, and unconjugated estriol (uE3) were established by retrieving and analyzing 54 serum specimens from women with confirmed Down syndrome pregnancies, compared with 657 specimens from women with normal outcomes. With a risk cutoff of 1:270 at the second trimester, the detection rate with MSAFP, hCG, and uE3 was two to three times higher than with MSAFP alone. With all three markers, the detection rate for Down syndrome increased from 50 to 77% as maternal age increased, and was 60% in a representative screened population. If uE3 was omitted, the detection rate decreased from 60 to 48%. One thousand women were screened prospectively, either with MSAFP or with all three markers prospectively, either with MSAFP or with all three markers and 4.1% with MSAFP. With the three markers, the positive predictive value for Down syndrome was 2.2% overall and as high as 5.9% in older women. Therefore, the addition of hCG and uE3 to the maternal serum screen increases the positive predictive value by 50-300%, depending on maternal age. These results confirm the efficacy of screening for Down syndrome using maternal age and three serum markers.