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. 2006 Dec 1;314(5804):1442-5.
doi: 10.1126/science.1132027.

Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment

B N Goswami  1 , V Venugopal, D Sengupta, M S Madhusoodanan, Prince K Xavier
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Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment

B N Goswami et al. Science. .

Abstract

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

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