Cancer mortality, recent trends and perspectives

Abstract

Considering that a register for cancer was established in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina only recently, basic reliable source for the analysis of cancer mortality trends are the data on death cases caused by such diseases. Lack of census as well as standardized mortality rate data makes the study even more difficult to make. The aim of the study is the analysis of the malign diseases trend in the post-war period according to the available data. The study is the descriptive work on the analysis of the system using linear regression methods for expected trend for the total population and age group from 0 to 64 years. Registered rate of cancer mortality in Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2004 was 142 per 100000 inhabitants, and indicates input stream in the analyzed period. Total increase in mortality of males and females is 2.5% per year. It is expected that in 2020 around 5000 inhabitants of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina will die of some malign disease. Trend of mortality of malign diseases in males is higher than in females and more probable in older population. There is a tendency of mortality decrease in the group of 0-64 years of age. Mortality list of the most frequent locations of cancer has undergone changes. Liver cancer, colon cancer, sigma and rectum cancer as well as lung and breast cancer lead the list. Objective ageing of the population, technological drawbacks, insufficient primary and secondary prevention worsened by socio-economic life conditions will affect the increase in number of people with malign diseases in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

CHART 1

Cancer mortality trends for all ages and age group 0-64 years Y= 2958,7+ 43,5x (for the deceased of all ages) Y= 1348,51+2,46x (for the deceased 0-64 years of age)

CHART 2

Male cancer mortality trends for all ages and age group 0-64 years Y= 1799,7+22x (for the deceased males of all ages) Y= 811,74+3,3x (for the deceased males 0-64 years of age)

CHART 3

Female cancer mortality trends for all ages and age between 0 and 64 years Y= 1161,4 + 20,57x (for the deceased females of all ages) Y= 536,77- 0,84x (for the deceased females 0-64 years of age)

CHART 4

Female mortality trends of breast cancer for all ages and age group 0-64 years Y= 165,7+l,6x (for the deceased females of all ages) Y= 105,8- 0,08x (for the deceased females 0-64 years of age)

CHART 5

Lung cancer mortality trends in males of all ages and for age group 0-64 years Y=660,4+12,75x (for the deceased males of all ages) Y=326,6-6,76x (for the deceased males 0-64 years of age)

CHART 6

Lung cancer mortality trends in females of all ages and for age group 0-64 years Y=147,8+2,14x (for the deceased females of all ages) Y=65,0-0,32x (for the deceased females 0-64 years of age)

CHART 7

Cervix cancer mortality trends in females of all ages and for age group 0-64 years Y= 35,07+l, lx (for the deceased females of all ages) Y= 21,6+0,77x (for the deceased females 0-64 years of age)