Monte carlo studies of plant mating system estimation models: the one-pollen parent and mixed mating models

Abstract

Estimation of mating system parameters in plant populations typically employs family-structured samples of progeny genotypes. These estimation models postulate a mixture of self-fertilization and random outcrossing. One assumption of such models concerns the distribution of pollen genotypes among eggs within single maternal families. Previous applications of the mixed mating model to mating system estimation have assumed that pollen genotypes are sampled randomly from the total population in forming outcrossed progeny within families. In contrast, the one-pollen parent model assumes that outcrossed progeny within a family share a single-pollen parent genotype. Monte Carlo simulations of family-structured sampling were carried out to examine the consequences of violations of the different assumptions of the two models regarding the distribution of pollen genotypes among eggs. When these assumptions are violated, estimates of mating system parameters may be significantly different from their true values and may exhibit distributions which depart from normality. Monte Carlo methods were also used to examine the utility of the bootstrap resampling algorithm for estimating the variances of mating system parameters. The bootstrap method gives variance estimates that approximate empirically determined values. When applied to data from two plant populations which differ in pollen genotype distributions within families, the two estimation procedures exhibit the same behavior as that seen with the simulated data.