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. 2007 Feb;4(2):e28.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0040028.

Most published research findings are false-but a little replication goes a long way

Ramal Moonesinghe  1 , Muin J Khoury, A Cecile J W Janssens
Affiliations

Most published research findings are false-but a little replication goes a long way

Ramal Moonesinghe et al. PLoS Med. 2007 Feb.

Abstract

While the authors agree with John Ioannidis that "most research findings are false," here they show that replication of research findings enhances the positive predictive value of research findings being true.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Probability of a True Relationship When At Least One, Two, or Three (Out of Ten) Studies Have Statistically Significant Results as a Function of the Pre-Study Odds of a True Relationship (α = 0.05)
Dashed lines refer to power of 0.2 and solid lines to power of 0.8.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Positive Predictive Value for Research Findings Being True for At Least r Positive Studies Out of Ten, 25, and 50 Studies for Pre-Study Odds R of 0.0001, 0.01, 0.1, and 0.5 (α = 0.05)
Dashed lines refer to power of 0.2 and solid lines to power of 0.8.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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