The rate of epidemiological and virological changes during the transition from nascent to concentrated HIV epidemic stage in the former Soviet Union countries

Abstract

The rate of processes accompanying the transition of the HIV-1 epidemic from nascent stage to concentrated one in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) during intravenous drug user (IDU)-associated HIV infection outbreaks in 1994-1999 has not been analyzed. To define the rates, we studied susceptible populations and circulating viruses before, during, and after the outbreaks. Our findings included the following: (1) the pattern of high HIV-1 genetic diversity characteristic of the nascent epidemic changed to a concentrated one within 1 year in St. Petersburg and in Moscow; (2) different FSU regions were at different stages of the HIV-1 epidemic in 1994-1996; (3) the change of serotypic patterns characteristic of different stages of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for the non-IDU risk group occurred within 1 year in Moscow, suggesting an extremely high rate of IDU-associated epidemic pattern distributions in regions and susceptible populations in the FSU.