Climatic factors associated with hospitalizations for rotavirus diarrhoea in children under 5 years of age

Abstract

This study compares the seasonality of rotavirus diarrhoeal hospital admissions and its relationship to climatic factors across three Australian cities. Weekly admission of rotavirus diarrhoea (1993-2003) in children aged <5 years and weekly average temperature and relative humidity for each city were modelled using a log-linear model with a cubic trend and season. Interactions were included to test for differences in the effect of temperature and humidity between seasons and between cities. Admissions of rotavirus diarrhoea peaked in winter and spring and were lowest in summer. Higher temperature and humidity in the previous week were associated with a decrease in rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in three cities. The effects of both temperature and humidity on rotavirus admissions in Brisbane differed across seasons. Strategies to combat outbreaks of rotavirus diarrhoea should take climatic factors and seasonal effects into consideration to plan for the excess seasonal hospital admissions.

Fig. 1

Weekly number of rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in children aged <5 years. (a) Mean weekly temperature (°C) and (b) mean weekly humidity (%) for three Australian cities, 1993–2003.

Fig. 2

Weekly number of rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in children aged <5 years. (a) Mean weekly temperature (°C) and (b) mean weekly humidity (%) for three Australian cities, averaged for each week over 1993–2003.

Fig. 3

Predicted values of rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in children aged <5 years for an increase in mean of previous week's temperature for three Australian cities, 1993–2003, with time set at December 2002.

Fig. 4

Predicted values of rotavirus diarrhoeal admissions in children aged <5 years for an increase in mean of previous week's humidity for three Australian cities, 1993–2003, with time set at December 2002.